HAL: I see your flight cable is down,
and I see you're in the configuration space.
MAN: Thank you, Hal.
Dr. Magnus: IT WAS MID-MORNING, AND I WAS GETTING READY TO EXERCISE.
AND WE WERE JUST SORT OF GETTING INTO OUR MID-MORNING...
ROUTINE, IF YOU WILL.
Okay, Nicole. I'm on my way.
WE GOT A CALL WE WERE HAVING A "RED CONJUNCTION."
WE'RE LOOKING AROUND, "WHAT THE HECK IS A RED CONJUNCTION?"
BECAUSE WE HADN'T REALLY TRAINED FOR IT.
Narrator: ASTRONAUTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
PREPARE FOR IMPACT.
A CHUNK OF AN OLD ROCKET BODY IS HEADING THEIR WAY.
Dr. Magnus: IT WAS A LITTLE BIT CHAOTIC
BECAUSE THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME WE HAD HAD ONE OF THESE.
Narrator: THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
IS TRAVELING 17,000 MILES PER HOUR,
OR 22 TIMES THE SPEED OF SOUND.
THE OBJECT IS COMING AT THEM HEAD-ON JUST AS FAST.
IT GETS HIT BY SOMETHING RELATIVELY SMALL...
...PENETRATES, BUT BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE INSIDE,
IT JUST FORCES THE MODULES TO OPEN UP,
JUST LIKE A BALLOON BURSTING.
AND THAT HAPPENS EXTREMELY QUICKLY
AND WITH NO CHANCE THAT AN ASTRONAUT IN THAT MODULE
COULD EVER GET OUT.
-- Captions by VITAC -- www.vitac.com
CAPTIONS PAID FOR BY DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS
Man: AND LIFTOFF.
MAN #2: Propulsion performing normally.
Narrator: OUTER SPACE --
THE VAST FRONTIER BEYOND OUR ATMOSPHERE,
A PRISTINE VACUUM... UNTIL RECENTLY, THAT IS.
AFTER DECADES OF HEAVY USE,
THE ORBITS AROUND OUR PLANET ARE NOW FULL OF JUNK.
SPACE JUNK IS ALL THE STUFF THAT WE'VE LAUNCHED INTO ORBIT
THAT NO LONGER SERVES A USEFUL PURPOSE.
SO IT'S SATELLITES. IT'S ROCKET BODIES.
IT'S, YOU KNOW, OLD GLOVES.
IT'S TOOL KITS THAT ASTRONAUTS HAVE ACCIDENTALLY DROPPED.
BASICALLY LITTER THAT WE'VE LEFT IN SPACE.
Narrator: BUT WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT OVERCROWDED ORBITS IN SPACE
WHEN WE'VE GOT PLENTY OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION RIGHT HERE ON EARTH?
BECAUSE FROM GPS TO CELLPHONES TO THE WEATHER FORECAST,
LIFE AS WE KNOW IT ON EARTH
COULD NOT FUNCTION WITHOUT SATELLITES ABOVE.
Dr. Lewis: UNLESS WE TACKLE THE DEBRIS PROBLEM,
THERE IS GOING TO BE NO WEATHER FORECAST.
THERE IS GOING TO BE
NO NEWS STORY FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD.
YOU'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO TURN ON THE TELEVISION
AND SEE THE WORLD CUP.
Narrator: THERE ARE OVER 1,265 SATELLITES OPERATING OVERHEAD RIGHT NOW,
AND EACH ONE NEEDS A CLEAR LANE IN ORDER TO TRAVEL SAFELY.
NO ONE THOUGHT
ORBITAL DEBRIS WAS MUCH OF A THREAT UNTIL AROUND 1970.
A NASA SCIENTIST NAMED DONALD KESSLER
STARTED MAKING CALCULATIONS AND REALIZED
THAT LEAVING JUNK IN ORBIT IS A FORMULA FOR DISASTER.
Kessler: PEOPLE TEND TO THINK OF ORBIT LIKE A ROAD THROUGH SPACE.
JUST AS LONG AS YOU STAY ON YOUR ROAD, YOU'RE NOT GONNA GET HIT.
IT WOULD BE MORE ACCURATE
TO THINK OF THE EARTH AS BEING ONE BIG, PAVED PLANET.
AND WHEN YOU WANT TO GO SOMEPLACE,
YOU DRIVE IN A STRAIGHT LINE FROM ONE PLACE TO ANOTHER,
AND OF COURSE -- WITH NO STOPLIGHTS AND NO PLACE TO STOP.
AND YOU'RE GOING TO BE RUNNING INTO EACH OTHER
ALL KINDS OF DIRECTIONS.
THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT YOU'VE GOT IN ORBIT.
SO I ENDED UP WITH AN EQUATION WHERE I COULD WRITE
THE SPACIAL DENSITY, ITS APOGEE, AND INCLINATION.
THEN YOU CAN DO NEAT THINGS LIKE...
Narrator: DONALD KESSLER'S KEY INSIGHT IS THAT WHEN CHUNKS OF SPACE TRASH
COLLIDE INTO ONE ANOTHER, THEY SPLINTER INTO MORE SPACE JUNK.
Kessler: IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE FLUX, THE SPACIAL DENSITY...
Narrator: EACH COLLISION SETS OFF
AN EXPONENTIAL CASCADE OF COLLISIONS
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DESTROY EVERY SATELLITE IN ORBIT.
THIS DEATH SPIRAL IS NOW KNOWN AS THE KESSLER SYNDROME.
Kessler: ...INTEGRATED OVER THE VOLUME.
IN OTHER WORDS, IF YOU NEVER LAUNCH ANYTHING ELSE IN SPACE,
THERE WILL STILL BE THIS CASCADING PHENOMENA
THAT CONTINUES TO GROW.
AND, ACTUALLY, IT CONTINUES UNTIL YOU ESSENTIALLY GRIND UP
ALL THE SATELLITES INTO SMALL DUST PARTICLES.
FREE PASS SVN-26.
Man: NO TIME-CRITICAL COMMANDING.
NO SATELLITE CONJUNCTION. GOOD ON STEP SIX.
Man #2: ALL DATA FEEDS TO EXTERNALS ARE OPEN,
AND BOTH COMMUNICATION LINES TO THE SITE ARE GOOD.
NO APPLICABLE SIFs OR TPs. YOU'RE GOOD TO EXECUTE.
COPY THAT, MA'AM.
Narrator: THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE SPACE COMMAND
TAKES DONALD KESSLER'S PREDICTIONS VERY SERIOUSLY.
Hyten: THOSE OBJECTS ARE GOING 17,000 MILES AN HOUR.
WHEN YOU'RE GOING 17,000 MILES AN HOUR,
IT DOES NOT TAKE A BIG PIECE OF DEBRIS TO RUIN YOUR DAY.
Narrator: IN THE EARLY 1980s, THEY STARTED KEEPING TABS
ON ANY ORBITAL TRASH LARGER THAN A BASEBALL.
BACK THEN, THERE WERE 6,000 SUCH OBJECTIVES.
[ TELEPHONE RINGS ]
GIVE LEVEL ONE A CALL ON THE TTC FIVE-SIX.
FOR DECADES, THAT NUMBER GREW ONLY SLIGHTLY.
AN INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT KEPT SPACE JUNK UNDER CONTROL
BY SENDING USED ROCKET BODIES DOWN INTO THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE,
WHERE THEY HARMLESSLY BURN UP.
THAT PLAN WORKED UNTIL 2007, WHEN THE CHINESE FIRED A MISSILE
INTO A WEATHER SATELLITE THEY NO LONGER NEEDED.
IT WAS PROOF THEY COULD HIT SUCH A TARGET AND DESTROY IT.
Hyten: I THINK THEY DID THAT BECAUSE THEY REALIZED THAT
THE UNITED STATES MILITARY IS CRITICALLY DEPENDENT ON SPACE.
AND THEY FELT LIKE
IF THEY WERE GOING TO BE ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY RESPOND
TO WHATEVER CHALLENGES THEY HAD IN THE FUTURE,
THEY NEEDED TO DEVELOP A WAY TO CHALLENGE
OUR SPACE CAPABILITIES.
BASICALLY, THERE'S NOT A SINGLE MILITARY OPERATION
THAT TAKES PLACE IN THE WORLD TODAY
THAT IS NOT CRITICALLY DEPENDENT ON SPACE CAPABILITIES.
IF SPACE GOES AWAY,
WE DO NOT FIGHT AS EFFECTIVELY AS WE WOULD OTHERWISE.
Narrator: THAT CHINESE TARGET PRACTICE
DEMONSTRATED WHAT A WAR IN SPACE MIGHT LOOK LIKE.
IT ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE DANGER OF ANY COLLISION IN SPACE,
INTENTIONAL OR ACCIDENTAL.
AFTER THE COLLISION,
YOU SEE QUITE A COMPACT DEBRIS CLOUD AT THE START.
BUT THEN, BECAUSE SOME OF THE FRAGMENTS ARE THROWN
INTO HIGH ORBITS AND SOME ARE THROWN INTO LOW ORBITS,
THE SPEED IS DIFFERENT.
SO YOU SEE, THE DEBRIS CLOUDS STRETCH OUT,
AND IT FORMS THIS RING.
NOW, BECAUSE THE EARTH IS NOT SPHERICAL,
IT CAUSES THE DEBRIS-RING WREATHS START TO STRETCH OUT.
IT MOVES THE ORBIT AROUND THE PLANET.
SO IT GOES
FROM THIS KIND OF COMPACT DEBRIS CLOUD RIGHT AT THE START
TO A SITUATION WHERE ALL THAT DEBRIS ENDS UP BEING DISTRIBUTED
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE PLANET.
Narrator: THAT ONE INCIDENT
WHEN CHINA DEMOLISHED ITS OWN SATELLITE IN 2007
INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF KILLER SPACE TRASH BY ALMOST 30%.
THE COMMANDER OF AMERICA'S SPACE DEFENSE OPERATIONS
FEELS THAT WORSE IS YET TO COME.
Hyten: IF YOU GO TO WAR IN SPACE AND IT BECOMES A KINETIC WAR,
YOU CREATE A DEBRIS FIELD THAT IS JUST UNMANAGEABLE,
AND YOU CAN'T OPERATE OR FLY IN IT.
SO I HOPE TO NEVER GO TO WAR IN SPACE.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, IF WE'RE THREATENED,
WE HAVE TO BE ABLE TO DEFEND OURSELVES,
AND WE HAVE TO BE ABLE TO DEFEND OURSELVES RIGHT NOW.
[ EXPLOSION ]
Narrator: THE DEBRIS PROBLEM CONTINUES TO GROW.
IN 2009,
AN AMERICAN COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE COLLIDED
WITH AN OUT-OF-CONTROL RUSSIAN KOSMOS SATELLITE.
THAT COLLISION GAVE THE AIR FORCE
4,000 MORE PIECES OF JUNK TO KEEP TRACK OF.
WITH OVER 17,000 LARGE OBJECTS FLYING IN ALL DIRECTIONS,
KESSLER'S CALCULATIONS PREDICT
A MAJOR COLLISION WITHIN FIVE YEARS.
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A SMALL PIECE OF METAL AND A SPACECRAFT
SLAM INTO EACH OTHER
AT A COMBINED SPEED OF 30,000 MILES PER HOUR?
NO SUCH COLLISION
HAS ACTUALLY BEEN OBSERVED FIRSTHAND IN SPACE.
SO SCIENTISTS CREATED A FULL-SCALE EXPERIMENT
HERE ON EARTH.
LOTS OF PEOPLE FIRE THINGS LIKE THAT, FOR INSTANCE,
AND MANY THINGS, MANY PHYSICAL PHENOMENA, DO NOT SCALE
WITH SIZE VERY WELL.
SO WE REALLY WANTED TO GET A FULL-SCALE, FULL-SIZED TEST.
THIS WAS THE SIZE OF THE OBJECT.
IT WAS MAYBE A LITTLE BIT SHORTER,
BUT BASICALLY A LARGE HOLLOW OBJECT IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE
OF SOMETHING THAT'S ACTUALLY IN SPACE --
LIKE MAYBE A SMALL SATELLITE OR A PIECE OF A SMALL SATELLITE.
Narrator: PATTI SCHEAFFER FIRED THE SOUP-CAN-SIZED OBJECT
INTO A METAL TANK AT 20 TIMES THE SPEED OF SOUND.
IS THAT T-MINUS 10? YES, THAT'S T-MINUS 10.
NINE, EIGHT...
AND THEN YOU HEAR THIS [IMITATES RUMBLING]
[ RUMBLING ]
AND THE BUILDING LITERALLY SHAKES A LITTLE BIT,
BUT I THINK A LOT OF IT IS ME,
YOU KNOW, JUST BEING FREAKED OUT.
AND THEN YOU SEE YOUR SCREEN FLASH UP, AND IT'S OVER.
ALL THAT WORK IS TURNED INTO THIS.
SO THIS PIECE OF MODERN ART HERE IS WHAT THE TANK LOOKS LIKE.
NOW, THIS IS THE TOP OF THE TANK.
RIGHT HERE, IT FOLDED AFTER IT FLEW THROUGH THE INSIDE,
BUT YOU CAN SEE IT'S ALL SPLAYED OUT.
Narrator: THE INTENSE HEAT OF THE EXPLOSION
TURNED SOLID METAL INSTANTLY INTO GAS.
WHEN THAT VAPORIZED METAL COOLED AND TURNED BACK INTO A SOLID,
PATTI FOUND THESE -- HUNDREDS OF ALUMINUM FLAKES.
ON EARTH, THEY'RE HARMLESS.
BUT WHEN THEY'RE ZOOMING AROUND LIKE BULLETS IN SPACE,
THEY'RE LETHAL.
NOW THAT'S ABOUT, UH... WHAT IS THAT?
250 MILLIGRAMS.
SO THAT'S A LITTLE BIT HEAVIER THAN AN IBUPROFEN PILL.
AND THE ENERGY THAT WOULD HAVE ON ORBIT
WOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS A HOT-LOADED .357 MAGNUM.
SO THAT'S A LOT OF MOMENTUM.
AND THE ENERGY WOULD BE MORE LIKE
A .50-CALIBER BROWNING MACHINE-GUN SNIPER ROUND.
SO IF YOU'RE GOING TO THINK ABOUT HOW DANGEROUS THIS IS
ON ORBIT, THINK .357 MAGNUM, .50-CALIBER SNIPER ROUND --
SOMEWHERE IN THERE.
SO IF THERE ARE MANY MORE PARTICLES PRODUCED
THAN WE THOUGHT -- 10 TIMES, 100 TIMES, 1,000 TIMES MORE --
THEN IT HAS A SNOWBALL EFFECT.
BECAUSE EACH ONE OF THOSE PARTICLES,
IF THERE'S 10 TIMES MORE, THERE COULD BE 10 TIMES MORE STRIKES.
AND EACH ONE OF THOSE MAKES 10.
SO THAT'S 10 TIMES 10, WHICH IS 100.
IF THERE'S 100 TIMES MORE, THEN EACH ONE OF THOSE
CAN MAKE STRIKES, WHICH IS 100 TIMES 100, WHICH IS 10,000.
SO IT SNOWBALLS RAPIDLY.
THE QUESTION IS -- HOW RAPIDLY IS IT GOING TO SNOWBALL?
AND THE ONLY WAY WE CAN KNOW THAT IS TO KNOW
HOW MANY OF THESE PARTICLES WE CAN'T SEE ARE ACTUALLY MADE.
Narrator: THE SATELLITES THAT WE RELY ON SO HEAVILY
ARE UNDER ATTACK BY AN ENEMY WE CREATED.
WE HAVE TRASHED OUR OWN NEIGHBORHOOD.
EARTH'S ORBITS ARE LITTERED
WITH HALF A CENTURY'S DISCARDED TECHNOLOGY.
[ EXPLOSION ]
MILLIONS OF TINY FRAGMENTS, TOO SMALL TO DETECT,
ARE TRAVELING 10 TIMES FASTER THAN BULLETS,
AND THEY WON'T STOP UNTIL THEY SMACK INTO SOMETHING BIGGER.
THERE'S ONE TARGET IN THEIR PATH
WITH A WINGSPAN AS BIG AS A FOOTBALL FIELD.
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION.
BITS OF METAL CAN PIERCE THE SHELL OF THE I.S.S.,
AS ASTRONAUT JIM REILLY OBSERVED DURING A SPACEWALK.
Reilly: AND AS WE'RE TILTING BACK, WE'RE GOING PAST THIS RADIATOR.
I NOTICED RIGHT OUT ON THE END OF IT,
THERE WERE THREE WHAT LOOKED LIKE BULLET HOLES,
RIGHT ABOUT THE SIZE OF ABOUT A 7.62 MM ROUND.
AND IT'S ABOUT THE SIZE OF MY THUMB -- THREE OF THEM --
JUST ABOUT THAT SIZE.
THERE WAS A FOURTH HOLE ON THE FLIGHT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND MINE.
FELLOW NAMED RICK MASTRACCHIO WAS WORKING ON THE SAME AREA.
AND DOWN BY RICK, THERE'S A FOURTH BULLET HOLE IN THERE.
Narrator: THE SPACE STATION'S HULL IS BUILT OF LAYERS
THAT CAN ABSORB DIRECT HITS FROM TINY OBJECTS.
Dr. Drolshagen: WHAT YOU SEE HERE IS A MOCK-UP
OF THE COLUMBUS MODULE OF THE EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY,
WHICH IS ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION.
AND HERE, YOU SEE ON THE OUTER SURFACE,
THE WHIPPLE SHIELD HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED EVERYWHERE.
YOU SEE HERE A CUTAWAY PART,
AND YOU CAN SEE THE OUTER WALL IS A BUMPER.
THEN, YOU HAVE SOME STUFFING SHOWN HERE AND THE INNER WALL,
WHICH IS FINALLY SUPPOSED TO STOP THE PARTICLE.
Narrator: THE WHIPPLE SHIELD CAN STOP OBJECTS AS BIG AS A PEA
FROM PIERCING THE SPACE STATION'S INNER HULL.
AND WITH RADARS AND OPTICAL TELESCOPES,
NASA IS ABLE TO SEE ANYTHING LARGER THAN A BASEBALL
HEADING TOWARD THE STATION.
WITH ENOUGH WARNING, THE I.S.S. CAN MOVE OUT OF HARM'S WAY.
BUT IT'S THE OBJECTS THAT FALL BETWEEN THE PEA AND THE BASEBALL
THAT ARE THE REAL DANGER.
Dr. Krag: OBJECTS BETWEEN 1 CENTIMETER AND 10 CENTIMETERS ROUGHLY,
THEY CAN NEITHER BE AVOIDED NOR SHIELDED.
SO THERE IS A DARK RISK THAT REMAINS
EVEN FOR THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION.
Narrator: NO ONE CAN SEE A PIECE OF GARBAGE THE SIZE OF A MARBLE
IN TIME TO GET OUT OF THE WAY.
AND A MARBLE TRAVELING OVER 20,000 MILES PER HOUR
COULD EASILY PUNCH A HOLE IN THE I.S.S.
Dr. Lewis: SO, THE SPACE STATION IS A PRESSURIZED MODULE.
THAT MEANS THAT THE PRESSURE INSIDE
IS GREATER THAN THE PRESSURE OUTSIDE.
IT'S A VACUUM OUTSIDE THE SPACE STATION.
AND THE EQUIVALENT DOWN HERE IS A BALLOON.
YOU KNOW, YOU BLOW AIR INTO A BALLOON, THE PRESSURE IS GREATER
INSIDE THE BALLOON THAN OUTSIDE THE BALLOON.
AND WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU STICK A PIN INTO A BALLOON.
IF YOU LOOK AT THAT BALLOON BURSTING IN SLOW MOTION
AS THE PIN GOES IN, THE BALLOON UNZIPS.
AND THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS
THAT COULD HAPPEN ON THE STATION.
IT GETS HIT BY SOMETHING RELATIVELY SMALL, PENETRATES,
BUT BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE INSIDE,
IT JUST FORCES THE MODULES JUST TO OPEN UP,
JUST LIKE A BALLOON BURSTING.
AND THAT HAPPENS EXTREMELY QUICKLY AND WITH NO CHANCE
THAT AN ASTRONAUT IN THAT MODULE COULD EVER GET OUT.
Narrator: THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
IS A GANGLY BEAST CONTROLLED BY 52 COMPUTERS.
IT'S NOT A SINGLE VEHICLE BUT A COLLECTION
OF PRESSURIZED MODULES AS BIG AS A SIX-BEDROOM HOUSE.
IT CANNOT CHANGE DIRECTION EASILY.
Dr. Magnus: YOU HAVE TO PROGRAM THE KIND OF BURN YOU WANT TO DO.
YOU HAVE TO PROGRAM THE MANEUVER TO THE STATION NEEDS TO GET --
TO DO THE KIND OF BURN YOU WANT TO DO BASED ON WHICH JETS YOU'RE USING.
IT TAKES SEVERAL DAYS.
THEY MAY HAVE GOTTEN IT DOWN FASTER THAN THAT,
BUT IT'S NOT JUST, "OKAY. FLIP A SWITCH. LET'S MOVE THE STATION."
IT'S NOT THAT STRAIGHTFORWARD.
Narrator: IN 2014, THE STATION MOVED THREE TIMES
TO AVOID LARGE CHUNKS OF ORBITAL DEBRIS.
BUT AS ASTRONAUT SANDRA MAGNUS KNOWS,
THERE ISN'T ALWAYS TIME TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY.
Dr. Magnus: IT WAS MID-MORNING, AND I WAS GETTING READY TO EXERCISE,
AND WE WERE JUST SORT OF GETTING INTO OUR MID-MORNING...
ROUTINE, IF YOU WILL.
AND WE GOT A CALL THAT WE WERE HAVING A "RED CONJUNCTION."
WE'RE LOOKING AROUND, "WHAT THE HECK IS A RED CONJUNCTION?"
BECAUSE WE HADN'T REALLY TRAINED FOR IT.
Narrator: A RED CONJUNCTION IS A WARNING CODE ISSUED BY NASA
WHEN THE I.S.S. IS IN THE PATH OF INCOMING SPACE JUNK
WITHOUT ENOUGH TIME TO MOVE OUT OF HARM'S WAY.
Dr. Magnus: IT WAS A LITTLE BIT CHAOTIC
BECAUSE THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME WE HAD HAD ONE OF THESE.
Narrator: A 5-INCH CHUNK FROM AN OLD ROCKET BODY
IS HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THE STATION.
IT'S ABOUT THE SIZE OF A COMPACT DISC --
10 TIMES BIGGER
THAN THE STATION'S WHIPPLE SHIELD CAN ABSORB.
A DIRECT HIT WOULD PUNCTURE THE STATION'S HULL
AND SUCK THE OXYGEN RIGHT OUT.
SANDRA RUSHES TO THE SOYUZ CAPSULE,
WHICH IS ALWAYS ATTACHED TO THE SPACE STATION
FOR USE AS A LIFE RAFT.
Dr. Magnus: WHEN THE SOYUZ DOCKS TO STATION,
IT'S PUT IN SORT OF -- I'LL CALL IT A SLEEP MODE
BECAUSE YOU REALLY DON'T NEED IT WHILE YOU'RE ON STATION
BECAUSE ITS YOUR DELIVERY VEHICLE
AND YOUR GO-HOME VEHICLE.
BUT WHEN YOU'RE GETTING READY TO EVACUATE FROM THE STATION,
WHETHER IT'S NOMINAL OR A CONTINGENCY,
YOU HAVE TO POWER ALL THAT STUFF UP.
AND THERE'S A CERTAIN SEQUENCE OF THINGS
THAT YOU HAVE TO GO THROUGH TO DO THAT.
Narrator: SANDRA TRIES TO REMAIN CALM.
Dr. Magnus: IT'S EITHER GOING TO HIT, OR IT'S NOT GOING TO HIT.
AND SO WORRYING ABOUT IT DOESN'T HELP YOU.
ALL YOU HAVE TO DO
IS JUST PREPARE EVERYTHING THAT YOU NEED TO PREPARE
SO THAT IF IT HITS,
THEN YOU'RE IN THE BEST POSSIBLE CONFIGURATION.
AND IF IT DOESN'T HIT,
WELL, THEN YOU JUST GO ON AND DO IT ANYWAY.
Narrator: THE SOYUZ CAPSULE HAS A SMALL WINDOW.
AS SANDRA SITS AND WAITS, SHE CAN'T HELP BUT TAKE A PEEK.
Dr. Magnus: SO I'M LOOKING OUT THE PORTAL, THINKING,
"OH, MAYBE I CAN SEE IT," YOU KNOW?
[ CHUCKLES ] YOU KNOW? AND YOUR VIEW IS LIKE THIS, RIGHT?
IT'S LIKE LOOKING OUT OF A PEEPHOLE OF A DOOR.
I WAS LAUGHING AT MYSELF, GOING, "THERE'S NO WAY..."
BECAUSE IF I SAW IT, IT WOULD BE REALLY BAD
BECAUSE IT'D BE RIGHT THERE.
Narrator: FORTUNATELY,
THE DANGEROUS JUNK MISSES THE STATION BY 2.8 MILES.
NASA LEARNED FROM THE INCIDENT
AND UPDATED THEIR PREPARATIONS FOR THE NEXT RED CONJUNCTION.
WE GOT THROUGH IT. IT WAS ALL GOOD.
SO IT WASN'T THAT EVERYBODY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT NEEDED TO BE DONE,
BUT IT'S LIKE, "WHAT ORDER DO YOU COMMUNICATE?
WHAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU COMMUNICATE?
WHO COMMUNICATES WHAT TO WHO?"
SO THERE WAS A LOT OF REFINEMENT THAT NEEDED TO HAPPEN.
AND SO WE INSTITUTED THAT AFTER THIS.
MAN: Okay, hatch is opened and stowed.
Narrator: IN JUST THE PAST FIVE YEARS,
THE AMOUNT OF KILLER SPACE TRASH CIRCLING EARTH
HAS GONE UP BY OVER 20% TO 22,000 PIECES.
The forward D ring. Uh, gate closed and locked.
AND THAT'S JUST THE ORBITAL DEBRIS THAT WE CAN DETECT --
THE BITS LARGER THAN A BASEBALL.
SCIENTISTS CALCULATE
THAT THERE ARE MILLIONS OF SMALLER PARTICLES,
TOO SMALL TO DETECT ON RADAR,
HURTLING AROUND OUR PLANET AT LETHAL SPEEDS.
THESE SMALLER BITS OF SPACE TRASH DON'T PRESENT A THREAT
TO THE HUMANS INSIDE THE SPACE STATION.
NICOLE: How about just one more check on the rail?
BUT WHEN ASTRONAUTS VENTURE OUT INTO THE VACUUM OF SPACE,
THEY'RE UNPROTECTED.
WHILE WORKING ON NASA'S HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT PROGRAM,
DR. KEVIN FONG LEARNED
HOW VULNERABLE ASTRONAUTS ON A SPACEWALK REALLY ARE.
[ BEEPING ]
Okay, we checked all four systems.
Modulation all four, and keen with a go.
Fong: THESE GUYS ARE OUT THERE, TUMBLING AROUND THE EARTH,
HOLDING ONTO THEIR SPACE STATION,
TRAVELING AT 17,500 MILES AN HOUR, 250 MILES OFF THE GROUND,
WITH NOTHING BETWEEN THEM AND DEATH
BUT THIS MULTI-LAYERED SUIT AND A VISOR.
THAT'S -- THAT'S WALKING IN SPACE.
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
Narrator: SPACEWALKERS HAVE NO WAY TO SHIELD THEMSELVES
FROM OBJECTS SPEEDING LIKE BULLETS IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
EVEN A TINY TEAR IN THE SPACE SUIT CAN BE LETHAL.
Dr. Reilly: THE SUIT CAN SUSTAIN A HOLE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1/8 AND A 1/4 OF AN INCH,
AND THAT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH VOLUME WITHIN THE OXYGEN TANKS
TO GIVE YOU ABOUT 15 MINUTES TO GET BACK INTO THE AIRLOCK.
THE PROBLEM ON THE STATION, THOUGH,
IS THAT YOU CAN BE 15 MINUTES AWAY AND FARTHER
WHEN YOU'RE DOING SOME OF YOUR WORK.
Fong: THE ENERGY CONTAINED WITHIN A SINGLE FLECK OF PAINT
TRAVELING AT THESE ENORMOUS VELOCITIES,
IT IS MUCH MORE AKIN
TO THE ENERGY YOU SEE CONTAINED WITHIN A HIGH EXPLOSIVE.
Narrator: THIS STRANGE-LOOKING ASSEMBLY OF PIPES AND TUBES
CAN SHOOT OBJECTS AT 10 TIMES THE SPEED OF A BULLET.
THE BULLET BEING TESTED TODAY IS TEENY --
A 1 MILLIMETER STEEL BALL.
THIS IS ABOUT THE SIZE AND WEIGHT
OF YOUR TYPICAL SPACE JUNK.
IN SPACE, SMALL IS WHAT'S FREQUENT.
LARGE IS NOT VERY COMMON.
A TINY DEBRIS FRAGMENT LIKE THIS OR A FLECK OF PAINT
IS THE MOST LIKELY THING TO HIT AN ASTRONAUT ON A SPACEWALK.
HOW MUCH DAMAGE COULD A LITTLE THING LIKE THIS CAUSE?
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
Okay. I am ready to receive it.
Fong: "SPACE SUIT" IS KIND OF A BIT OF A MISNOMER.
IT'S NOT A SUIT. IT'S THE WORLD'S SMALLEST SPACECRAFT.
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
YOU DEPEND UPON IT ENTIRELY FOR YOUR LIFE
BECAUSE INSIDE THAT SUIT IS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT YOU CAN BREATHE,
A WARMTH ENOUGH TO KEEP YOU ALIVE,
AND SOMETHING THAT CAN REPEL HEAT WHEN IT'S OUT THERE.
All right. Alpha two, counterclockwise two.
AND IT ALL LOOKS GREAT. IT ALL LOOKS NICE AND FLOATY.
BUT, ACTUALLY, THESE ARE SOME OF THE MOST TERRIFYING MOMENTS
IN ALL OF HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION.
THIS IS THE MAXIMAL EXPOSURE
THAT AN INDIVIDUAL CAN HAVE OUT THERE.
THIS IS WHERE THEY ARE STRIPPED OF ALL OF THE PROTECTIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN ENGINEERED OVER YEARS.
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
IT'S HARD TO THINK OF AN ENVIRONMENT OR A SITUATION
IN WHICH YOU WOULD BE MORE VULNERABLE.
Narrator: ONE OF THE MOST VULNERABLE PARTS OF A SPACE SUIT
IS THE TRANSPARENT FACEPLATE.
THIS IS A PIECE OF PLASTIC, OR POLYCARBONATE,
WHICH IS TYPICALLY USED IN SPACE, FOR EXAMPLE,
AS A SHIELD ACROSS THE VISOR
OF THE HELMET AN ASTRONAUT MIGHT WEAR.
SO HE'LL BE LOOKING OUT THROUGH IT,
PROTECTING HIM FROM THE ENVIRONMENT.
WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO HERE IS WE'RE GOING TO PUT IT IN THE GUN
AND FIRE ONE OF OUR VERY SMALL PARTICLES
AT 14,000 MILES AN HOUR TOWARDS IT.
Narrator: THIS SHEET OF POLYCARBONATE
IS THE SAME THICKNESS AS A SPACE-SUIT VISOR.
SO THIS IS OUR POLYCARBONATE AFTER THE IMPACT EXPERIMENT.
SO, A 1-MILLIMETER OBJECT
TRAVELING AT 14,000 MILES PER HOUR.
HAS GONE STRAIGHT THROUGH THE FRONT.
AT THE BACK, THERE'S A SLIGHTLY LARGER HOLE.
SO IT'S GONE THROUGH AND REMOVED MATERIAL FROM THE REAR SURFACE.
AND THAT'S KEPT ON GOING AND HIT WHAT'S ON THE FAR SIDE,
POTENTIALLY AN ASTRONAUT.
Okay, Nicole, I have my gate closed and locked.
NICOLE: With that, you are go
to release your waist tether...
Narrator: JIM REILLY HAS WALKED IN SPACE FIVE TIMES.
HE SAYS SPACE JUNK IS PART OF THE JOB.
Dr. Reilly: YOU KNOW, AT SOME POINT, IF YOU GET HIT
BY SOMETHING OF ANY SIZE, IT'S PRETTY MUCH GAME OVER.
BUT, YOU KNOW, WE ACCEPT THOSE RISKS EVEN HERE ON EARTH.
YOU CAN GET HIT BY A BUS, AND IT'S JUST -- IT'S YOUR DAY.
RIGHT? SO YOU ACCEPT THAT.
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
That looks like it's in there.
WHEN THE SPACE AGE STARTED, NASA DESIGNED THE SPACE SUITS
SO THAT THE ASTRONAUTS COULD SURVIVE
IMPACTS OF VERY SMALL DUST.
BUT AS THE SPACE AGE HAS GONE ON AND BITS OF PAINT
HAVE FLAKED AWAY FROM THE OUTSIDE OF A SPACECRAFT
OR SOMETIMES A DISUSED SATELLITE EXPLODES
AND SHOWERS SPACE WITH VERY FINE DEBRIS,
THERE'S MORE AND MORE DEBRIS,
ABOUT THE SIZE WE'VE BEEN SHOOTING HERE TODAY.
SOONER OR LATER, IN THE NEXT DECADE OR TWO,
AN ASTRONAUT WILL BE STRUCK BY SOMETHING THIS SIZE.
[ RUMBLING ]
Narrator: THE AMOUNT OF KILLER SPACE JUNK
HAS BEEN GROWING STEADILY FOR DECADES.
EACH YEAR, THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE SPACE COMMAND
HAS MORE AND MORE PIECES OF ORBITAL DEBRIS TO KEEP TRACK OF.
IT COULD GET MUCH WORSE VERY SOON.
SCIENTISTS ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON 17 ABANDONED RUSSIAN SL-16 ROCKET BODIES
THAT ARE ORBITING JUST 30 MILES APART FROM ONE ANOTHER.
EACH ONE IS ABOUT THE SIZE OF A RAILROAD CAR.
THERE'S A 1-IN-400 CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS
OF TWO OF THOSE SL-16 ROCKET BODIES COLLIDING.
SO YOU MAY ASK...
"THAT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE THAT'S TOO BAD."
I'M NOT SURE HOW MANY OF YOU WOULD GO
AND TAKE THE SUBWAY TOMORROW INTO WORK
IF THERE'S A 1-IN-400 CHANCE
THAT THAT SUBWAY WASN'T GOING TO MAKE IT INTO WORK.
Narrator: A COLLISION BETWEEN TWO OR MORE OF THOSE HUGE, OLD ROCKETS
COULD CREATE THOUSANDS OF NEW THREATS.
BUT WHAT WORRIES SOME PEOPLE EVEN MORE
IS THE THREATS WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT.
Dr. McKnight: WHAT I'M REALLY MORE CONCERNED ABOUT --
IT'S KIND OF LIKE THE CANARY IN THE MINE.
I DON'T CARE ABOUT THE BIG BREAKUPS.
I CARE ABOUT THE SATELLITES THAT ARE FAILING FOR UNKNOWN REASONS
BECAUSE, STATISTICALLY, YOU KNOW HAVE MANY MORE
OF THE LETHAL, NONTRACKABLE OBJECTS THAN YOU DO
OF THE TRACKABLE FRAGMENTS THAT ARE GOING TO BREAK THINGS UP.
SO WHAT A PRECURSOR SHOULD BE,
AN INDICATOR THAT WE'RE GETTING CLOSE TO THE KESSLER SYNDROME,
IS THAT WE HAVE MANY MORE
SATELLITES THAT HAVE ANOMALIES FOR UNKNOWN REASONS.
MAN: Roger, go for deploy.
MAN #2: TWO. THREE.
MAN #3: Oh, roger, liftoff, and the clock is started.
Narrator: THE EARTH OBSERVATIONAL SATELLITE KNOWN AS ENVISAT
WAS BUILT IN BRITAIN IN 2002 FOR THE EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY.
[ Man speaking French ]
IT WAS THE LARGEST CIVILIAN EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITE
EVER FIRED INTO SPACE.
BUT IN APRIL 2012, IT SUDDENLY STOPPED WORKING.
Dr. Lewis: SO ALL OF THE SUDDEN, IT WENT FROM GENERATING
HUGE AMOUNTS OF DATA FOR SCIENTISTS DOWN ON THE GROUND
TO BASICALLY ONE OF THE BIGGEST PIECES OF JUNK THAT WE SEE ON ORBIT.
Narrator: SOME SCIENTISTS SUSPECT ENVISAT WAS TAKEN OUT BY SPACE JUNK.
Dr. Drolshagen: SOMETIMES, IT'S NOT A CLEAR INDICATION
AND IT'S JUST A SUSPICION THAT SMALLER PARTICLES
HAVE IMPACTED THE SATELLITE AND DONE SOME DAMAGE.
YOU CAN CUT A CABLE EASILY,
OR YOU CAN DAMAGE SOME STRUCTURAL PARTS.
SO IT CERTAINLY WILL HAPPEN, AND IT HAS HAPPENED IN SPACE.
Narrator: ENVISAT IS NOW TOTALLY OUT OF CONTROL.
IT'S HURTLING BLINDLY AROUND THE WORLD IN THE SAME ORBITAL PATH
AS MANY OTHER EARTH OBSERVATIONAL SATELLITES.
Dr. Lewis: SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING HERE IS,
THIS IS THE VIEW FROM ENVISAT AS IT'S TRAVELING AROUND THE EARTH.
THESE ARE ALL THE OTHER DEBRIS OBJECTS
THAT WE CAN CURRENTLY TRACK FROM THE GROUND.
AS WE'RE MOVING ALONG THE ORBIT HERE, WHAT YOU SEE IS, YOU KNOW,
THERE ARE PLENTY OF OBJECTS THAT ARE PASSING IN FRONT OF ENVISAT,
IN SOME CASES, PASSING RIGHT NEXT TO ENVISAT.
YOU KNOW, WHEN WE GET TO THE POLES LIKE THIS,
YOU CAN SEE JUST HOW CROWDED THE ENVIRONMENT ACTUALLY IS.
AND ENVISAT IS JUST GOING THROUGH THAT NOW
WITHOUT ANY KIND OF CONTROL.
SO THERE'S NO WAY IT CAN MANEUVER TO AVOID ANY COLLISION.
SOME OF THESE THINGS PASSING 14 KILOMETERS PER SECOND.
HUGE AMOUNT OF ENERGY IS INVOLVED.
Narrator: WHERE WOULD MODERN CIVILIZATION BE WITHOUT SATELLITES?
COULD WE LEARN TO LIVE WITHOUT GPS,
WEATHER FORECASTS, AND CELLPHONES?
WE MAY NEED TO IF OUR SATELLITES FALL VICTIM TO THE JUNK
WE'VE BEEN LEAVING IN ORBIT FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS.
CLEANING UP EARTH'S ORBIT IS A PRIORITY
FOR MANY OF TODAY'S LEADING AEROSPACE ENGINEERS.
THE BRITISH SATELLITE COMPANY AIRBUS
WANTS TO RETRIEVE DISABLED SATELLITES
BEFORE THEY BREAK UP INTO DISRUPTIVE CLOUDS OF SHRAPNEL.
AIRBUS BUILDS SOME OF THE MOST COMPLEX SATELLITES IN THE WORLD.
THEY CAN'T AFFORD TO SEE
NEW SATELLITES DESTROYED BY OLD ONES.
INSIDE A SMALL LAB, AIRBUS ENGINEERS ARE DEVELOPING A WAY
TO SNAG A WHALE OF A TARGET IN SPACE
USING A DECEPTIVELY OLD-FASHIONED WEAPON --
...A HARPOON.
THIS DEMONSTRATION ALLOWS US TO PROVE
THAT WE CAN TARGET A SMALL OBJECT,
A VERY LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECT VERY ACCURATELY.
IF WE CAN DO THAT, THEN WE CAN CERTAINLY GO AND CAPTURE
VERY BIG OBJECTS AND VERY HEAVY OBJECTS,
WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE MAIN TARGETS THAT WE WANT TO CAPTURE.
Narrator: THEIR PLAN --
LAUNCH A REMOTE-CONTROLLED CHASER SPACECRAFT,
WHICH WOULD CAREFULLY APPROACH A DEFUNCT SATELLITE,
THEN FIRE THE HARPOON.
Dr. Reid: SO THIS SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE THOSE ITEMS OF DEBRIS,
TOW THEM OUT OF THE ORBITS
WHERE THEY MIGHT COLLIDE WITH ACTIVE SATELLITES,
AND ALLOW THEM TO BURN UP SAFELY IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
SO THE IDEA IS TO HAVE A SYSTEM WHICH TAKES THEM AWAY
FROM WHERE THEY CAUSE A PROBLEM
AND BASICALLY DESTROY THEM SAFELY.
Narrator: NOT EVERYONE IN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
IS ON BOARD WITH THE HARPOON SOLUTION.
Dr. Lewis: YOU'RE FIRING SOMETHING.
IT'S GOING TO BE TRAVELING PRETTY QUICKLY.
IT'S GOING TO HIT THE OTHER SPACECRAFT.
OKAY? AND THAT'S KIND OF THE SITUATION
THAT WE'RE TRYING TO AVOID IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WE'RE ARTIFICIALLY GENERATING A COLLISION HERE.
THE WHOLE POINT OF THIS SPACECRAFT,
OF, YOU KNOW, REMOVING THAT BIG JUNK
IS THAT WE REDUCE THE NUMBER OF OBJECTS THAT WE HAVE ON ORBIT.
SO WE DON'T WANT TO BE GENERATING ANY NEW DEBRIS.
Narrator: A HARPOON STRIKING A SATELLITE COULD CAUSE MORE HARM THAN GOOD.
WHERE ON THAT SPACECRAFT ARE YOU GOING TO FIRE YOUR HARPOON?
THERE ALL SORTS OF THINGS INSIDE THERE THAT,
YOU KNOW, POTENTIALLY YOU CAN HAVE PROBLEMS WITH.
Dr. Reid: ON THE INSIDE OF THE SATELLITE,
WE HAVE THINGS LIKE PROPULSION LINES, WHICH YOU CAN SEE HERE,
WHICH CARRY THE PROPELLANT FOR THE THRUSTERS
AND ELECTRONICS BOXES AND VARIOUS OTHER BITS OF EQUIPMENT.
SO WHEN WE PUNCH THROUGH THIS PANEL,
WE NEED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THERE MIGHT BE
THIS SORT OF EQUIPMENT ON THE OTHER SIDE.
Narrator: HITTING A SATELLITE'S EXTREMELY VOLATILE PROPELLANT
WITH A HARPOON WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY CAUSE AN EXPLOSION.
BUT IF HARPOONING SPACE JUNK ISN'T THE ANSWER, WHAT IS?
Narrator: THE ORBITS AROUND OUR PLANET ARE FULL OF SPACE JUNK,
BUT THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY HAS A FEW IDEAS
FOR CLEARING IT OUT OF THE WAY.
THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO PUSH ORBITAL DEBRIS
DOWN INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, WHERE THEY WILL BURN UP ON RE-ENTRY,
INCLUDING CAPTURING THEM IN A NET,
STICKING A MAGNETIC THRUSTER ONTO THE JUNK,
PHYSICALLY GRABBING THE DRIFTING SATELLITE,
FIRING A LASER BEAM TO LOWER ITS ORBIT,
OR WE COULD SEND THE TRASH TO DEEP SPACE
USING GIANT SOLAR-RADIATION SAILS.
BUT CAN WE REALLY CLEAN UP
MILLIONS OF INDIVIDUAL TRASH FRAGMENTS
THAT RANGE FROM TINY PAINT FLECKS TO GIANT ROCKET BODIES?
HAVE WE PASSED THE POINT OF NO RETURN?
Dr. McKnight: IF I TAKE OFF A CERTAIN NUMBER OF OBJECTS
OVER A CERTAIN PERIOD OF TIME,
I'M GOING TO REDUCE THE PROBABILITY OF COLLISION.
UNFORTUNATELY, FROM THE ANALYSIS THAT'S BEEN DONE,
IT'S ABOUT 35 TO 50 REMOVALS TO PREVENT ONE COLLISION.
THAT'S NOT GREAT. RIGHT?
A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK,
"I REMOVE ONE OBJECT; I'VE STOPPED ONE BREAKUP!"
THAT IS NOT THE WAY IT'S GONNA WORK.
IT'S STATISTICAL IN NATURE. IT'S BEING VERY PROACTIVE.
DOESN'T MEAN WE SHOULDN'T DO IT, BUT IT'S NOT ONE-FOR-ONE.
Dr. Lewis: IT'S GOING TO BE A HUGE, HUGE COST.
DO WE SPEND THE MONEY ON REMOVING ALL THESE OBJECTS?
OR LET'S NOT SPEND THE MONEY.
LET'S LEAVE ALL THE OBJECTS IN ORBIT.
AND THEN WE TAKE THE RISK
THAT SOME OF THOSE ARE GOING TO BE HIT.
THEY'RE GOING TO GENERATE MORE FRAGMENTS.
AND WE END UP IN THIS SITUATION
WHERE, YOU KNOW, THE EARTH ORBIT IS COMPLETELY CONGESTED,
FULL OF FRAGMENTS, AND WE CAN'T LAUNCH NEW SPACE MISSIONS.
Narrator: THE UNITED STATES
IS THE 21st CENTURY'S MOST POWERFUL SPACEFARING NATION,
AND IT'S TRYING TO CONFRONT THE PROBLEM.
THE U.S. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS SPENDING $1 BILLION
ON A NEW TRACKING SYSTEM CALLED SPACE FENCE.
Bruce: SPACE FENCE WILL PROVIDE THE CAPABILITY
TO DETECT, TRACK, AND CATALOG OBJECTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE BASEBALL SIZE
DOWN TO SORT OF MARBLE-SIZED, DEPENDING ON THE ALTITUDE.
Narrator: SO INSTEAD OF JUST TRACKING 22,000 LARGE OBJECTS,
SPACE FENCE WILL KEEP TABS
ON 200,000 MUCH SMALLER BITS OF DEADLY JUNK.
Hyten: TO BE HONEST, A LOT OF PEOPLE WOULD SAY,
"WELL, LET'S PUT OUR HEAD IN THE SAND AND IGNORE THE PROBLEM,"
AND, WELL, THAT'S JUST
AN IRRESPONSIBLE WAY TO LOOK AT THE PROBLEM.
IF YOU CAN SEE THAT DEBRIS AND YOU CAN AVOID THAT DEBRIS,
YOU NEED TO DO EVERYTHING YOU CAN TO DO THAT
BECAUSE EVERY ONE OF THOSE EVENTS THAT IS A COLLISION
CREATES THOUSANDS OF OTHER PIECES OF DEBRIS
NOW THAT YOU HAVE TO TRACK.
Narrator: SPACE FENCE IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
BUT WITH MILLIONS OF OBJECTS ALREADY ORBITING EARTH
AND ONLY A THOUSAND OR SO THAT CAN ACTUALLY BE MOVED
TO AVOID A COLLISION...
WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT WE'LL STILL BE ABLE
TO OPERATE SAFELY IN SPACE 20, 40, 60 YEARS FROM NOW?
CAN SCIENCE MAKE ANY WORTHWHILE PREDICTIONS?
WHAT I EXPECT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IS NOT GOING TO BE AT ALL
WHAT ANYBODY ELSE THAT YOU'RE GOING TO FILM IS GOING TO SAY.
AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE ANSWER IS.
SO I'M JUST GOING TO TELL YOU, YOU HAVE TO LIVE WITH AMBIGUITY,
AND I BELIEVE THAT IT WILL NOT UNFOLD
IN A PREDICTABLE, LINEAR, CONSISTENT WAY
FROM ANY WAY THAT WE BELIEVE.
IT'S GONNA BE SPORADIC AND IT'S GONNA BE UNPREDICTABLE
AND WE'RE ALL GONNA ACT SURPRISED.
AND MYSELF AND DON KESSLER AND HUGH LEWIS ARE GOING TO GO BACK
AND GO, "THE VARIANCE IS LARGE. WE TOLD YOU."
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
That looks like it's in there.
Narrator: IF DONALD KESSLER'S CALCULATIONS ARE RIGHT --
AND SO FAR, THEY HAVE BEEN --
THIS IS WHAT THE ORBITS AROUND EARTH
WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE NEXT FEW CENTURIES.
Dr. Lewis: WE'RE USING SPACE ALL THE TIME.
WHEN WE LOOK INTO THE FUTURE, THAT'S ONLY GOING TO CONTINUE.
AND WE'RE GOING TO MAKE MORE USE OF SPACE.
IF WE'RE CONNECTED VIA SPACE ALL OF THE TIME,
THEN SPACE BECOMES OUR SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE,
AND WE'VE GOT TO TACKLE THAT PROBLEM.
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
Hyten: I WANT MY KIDS AND MY KIDS' KIDS TO BE ABLE TO EXPLORE SPACE.
AND IF WE RUIN THE ENVIRONMENT, WE CAN'T DO THAT.
AND THAT WOULD BE TRAGIC
BECAUSE MY PASSION FOR SPACE CAME WHEN I WAS 10 YEARS OLD
WHEN I WATCHED APOLLO 11
AND I WATCHED NEIL ARMSTRONG WALK ON THE MOON.
THAT MAGIC THAT CREATED THAT FEELING IN ME THAT SAID,
"I WANT TO DO SPACE,"
I WANT MY KIDS AND MY KIDS' KIDS TO HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY.
AND IF THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT IS RUINED, THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.
Okay, I am ready to receive it.
[ RADIO CHATTER ]
At the end of vector, my toes will be pointed forward.
On my way.